Time for A New Coach

I've been on the fence about whether to keep Rich Rodriguez as Michigan's head coach, but after yesterday's Gator Bowl debacle (calling it a "game" would be too kind), my mind has been made up:  RichRod must go. 

Previously, I thought that if he committed himself to bringing in a new defensive coordinator and special teams coach, and to recruiting bigger players, he should be given another chance. His offense was exciting and dynamic enough to warrant more time.  Prior to the Gator Bowl, Ryan Van Bergen, a starting defensive lineman, said the defense would show up and play well against Mississippi State because they've had 4 weeks to prepare, just as the defense played well against U-Conn in the first game of the season.  Well, that doesn't cut it with me.  Teams are expected to be prepared to play well with only 1 week of preparation, otherwise it would take all year just to play 11 games.  If Van Bergen needs 4 weeks to prepare for each game, perhaps he's playing for the wrong program. In fact, even with 4 weeks of prep time, Mississippi State shredded the Michigan defense for 52 points.  Fifty-two points.  And Mississippi State is considered middle-of-the-pack in the SEC.  Their offensive line blew open holes, their big running backs and quarterback Chris Relf stomped all over the Michigan defenders, and the receivers had a relatively easy time against the defensive backs.  Unacceptable.  From the beginning of the year to the Gator Bowl, the defense showed absolutely no improvement, and set all kinds of Michigan records.  Worst rushing defense in Michigan history. Worst passing defense in Michigan history. Worst scoring defense in Michigan history. Worst defense in Michigan history.  Yes, the defense set records, but the wrong kinds of records. 

Special teams were once again a mixed bag.  Michigan players did a fine job of running back kickoffs and MSU's rare punts, putting the offense into good field position time and again. It was great seeing Martavious Odoms back on the field, and he was one of the few players who actually played well.  The offense, however, failed to capitalize on their great field position, but more on that later.  Michigan's kicker failed on yet another easy field goal, leaving Michigan with a 4-for-14 field goal record on the season.  Of course, when you lose 52-14, one field goal doesn't matter very much, but that's beside the point.  And then there was the blocked punt.  Special teams haven't improved a bit over the course of year. 

That brings me to the offense.  Rodriguez's spread offense is dynamic and exciting, especially in the hands of Denard Robinson.  My oh my, they could rack up the points.  42 against U-Mass.  65 against Bowling Green.  42 against Indiana. 67 against Illinois.  But those are all middling opponents.  Against quality teams with stout defenses, the offense sputtered and stalled.  Against Michigan State, only 17 points.  Against Iowa, only 28 points.  Against Penn State, only 31 points.  Against Wisconsin, only 28 points.  Against the hated Buckeyes, only 7 points.  And against Mississippi State, with 4 weeks to prepare, only 14 points, all of them in the first quarter.  And we lost all of those games.  Most of them weren't even close.

Part of the problem with the offense is that Denard Robinson is a young quarterback, playing in only his first full season, so he needs more experience reading defenses.  That's to be expected, and I have no doubt Robinson will improve next year, just as his passing game has shown so much improvement.  He's a talented young man with a great feel for the game.  If the offense hasn't played well, it isn't fair to lay it all on Robinson's shoulders. 

Play calling has been as much a problem for the offense.  One of the Mississippi State linebackers, K.J. Wright, had this to say:

“Michigan was real predictable in what they were doing,” Wright said. “So I just looked at the formation and knew what they were doing. Before the ball was snapped, me and Chris [White], we knew what they were going to do.”

Rodriguez is supposed to bring an unpredictable, razzle-dazzle offense, and here he was outsmarted by a senior linebacker.  

My biggest knock on Rodriguez's offense, however, is that the players are too small.  Over the course of the 2009 season, QB Tate Forcier was constantly getting knocked out of the game and played injured for much of the latter half of the season. The roster lists him at 6'1, 190 lbs., but that's got to be generous.  He may be 190 with all his equipment on, and with a tackling dummy strapped to his back.  Denard Robinson was repeatedly getting knocked out of games during this past season, and he's generously listed at 193 lbs.  Considering how frequently he runs and how many hits he has to take, that's just too small.  Compare Forcier and Robinson to these other top college QBs:

Auburn's Cam Newton is 6'6, 250 lbs.

Ohio State's Terrelle Pryor is 6'6, 233 lbs.

Both these guys are big, fast, and mobile, and could easily play the spread offense.  And they can take the hits.

Look at Michigan's running backs:

Vincent Smith is 5'6, 180 lbs.

Michael Shaw is 6'1, 188 lbs.

Fitzgerald Toussaint is 5'10, 200 lbs.

Phil Monolo is 5'9, 186 lbs.

O'Neil Swanson is 5'10, 162 lbs.

Stephen Hopkins is 230 lbs. 

Teric Jones is 5'9, 198 lbs.

Michael Cox is 6'0, 211 lbs. 

Only two of those running backs top 200 lbs., and they rarely get to touch the ball.  The guys that get most of the handoffs -- Vincent Smith, Michael Shaw, and Fitzgerald Toussaint -- should be playing in Pee Wee League.  Michigan is the place where big backs come to play:  Butch Woolfolk, Tyrone Wheatley, Tim Biakabatuka, Chris Perry, Anthony Thomas.  These guys hurt you, they make you pay for the privilege of trying to tackle them.  If the offensive line doesn't open up a big enough hole, these guys will make it bigger.  Sure, we've had some small backs that have done well in the past -- Jamie Morris and Michael Hart -- but they were the exception, not the rule. And they were exceptional players, too.  

Look at the running backs RichRod is trying to recruit for the team:

Justice Hayes is 5'10, 175 lbs.

Demetrius Hart is 5'8, 190 lbs.  

Granted, these are 4-star recruits, but they are too small to play in the Big Ten.  They'll do fine if they never get touched by a defensive lineman or linebacker, but how likely is that to happen?

This leads me to recruiting in general.  For 2011, Michigan's recruiting rank at Rivals.com is a puny 28th.  Even Cal (that's Cal-Berkeley, not Southern Cal), came in higher, at #15.  USC came in #6, and they are on NCAA probation!  Three other Big Ten teams, and perennial rival Notre Dame, all have higher-ranked recruiting classes than Michigan.  For 2010, Michigan's rank was 20th. In 2009, the class that brought us Denard Robinson, Michigan's rank was #8.  Michigan should be competing for the best players in the country year in and year out, but I get the sense that RichRod still has a West Virginia mentality when it comes to recruiting. West Virginia was never good enough to compete with the top 10 programs in the country, and didn't try.  Michigan is in a different class though. High school players shouldn't have to ponder whether to go to Michigan or to South Carolina. It should be a no-brainer.

All of this has led me to the conclusion that another year with Rodriguez as head coach won't improve things. Too much is wrong with the program. Under his stewardship, we've become the laughingstock of the Big Ten. We've been unable to beat Michigan State and Ohio State. We are no longer feared.  I have no doubt that Rodriguez is a good man, someone who cares deeply about Michigan and the young men he is coaching. It's not enough, however. It's time to cut our losses and find a new head coach.